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Slide 2 - Climate Change

Human activity has substantially increased the amount of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere influencing temperature,precipation, storms, and sea level.

Natural variation of these features occurs; difficult to determine fraction due to human activity

Changes will continue unless greenhouse gas emissions decrease substantially from present levels but magnitude of change is uncertain.

The temperature increase is widespread over the globe, and is greater at higher northern latitudes (Figure 1.2). Average Arctic temperatures have increased at almost twice the global average rate in the past 100 years. Land regions have warmed faster than the oceans (Figures 1.2 and 2.5). Observations since 1961 show that the average temperature of the global ocean has increased to depths of at least 3000 m and that the ocean has been taking up over 80% of the heat being added to the climate system. New analyses of balloon-borne and satellite measurements of lower- and midtropospheric temperature show warming rates similar to those observed in surface temperature.

Increases in sea level are consistent with warming (Figure 1.1). Global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 [1.3 to 2.3] mm per year over 1961 to 2003 and at an average rate of about 3.1 [2.4 to 3.8] mm per year from 1993 to 2003. Whether this faster rate for 1993 to 2003 reflects decadal variation or an increase in the longer term trend is unclear. Since 1993 thermal expansion of the oceans has contributed about 57% of the sum of the estimated individual contributions to the sea level rise, with decreases in glaciers and ice-caps contributing about 28% and losses from the polar ice sheets contributing the remainder. From 1993 to 2003 the sum of these climate contributions is consistent within uncertainties with the total sea level rise that is directly observed.

Observed decreases in snow and ice extent are also consistent with warming (Figure 1.1). Satellite data since 1978 show that annual average Arctic sea ice extent has shrunk by 2.7 [2.1 to 3.3]% per decade, with larger decreases in summer of 7.4 [5.0 to 9.8]% per decade. Mountain glaciers and snow cover on average have declined in both hemispheres. The maximum areal extent of seasonally frozen ground has decreased by about 7% in the Northern Hemisphere since 1900, with decreases in spring of up to 15%. Temperatures at the top of the permafrost layer have generally increased since the 1980s in the Arctic by up to 3°C.

Slide 3 - Impact of Climate Change

Many elements of human society and the environment are sensitive to climate variability and change –Human health, agriculture, natural ecosystems, coastal areas, and heating and cooling requirements.

IPCC estimates that for increases of global mean temperature (compared to 1990): –Less than 1.8-5.4°F: some regions will see beneficial impacts and others will see harmful impacts –Greater than 3.6-5.4°F: all regions will experience harmful impacts.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) concludes that “impacts of climate change will vary regionally but, aggregated and discounted to the present, they are very likely to impose net annual costs which will increase over time as global temperatures increase.” The IPCC estimates that for increases in global mean temperature of less than 1-3°C (1.8-5.4°F) above 1990 levels, some places and sectors will see beneficial impacts while others will experience harmful ones. Some low-latitude and polar regions are expected to experience net costs even for small increases in temperature. For increases in temperature greater than 2-3°C (3.6-5.4°F), the IPCC says it is very likely that all regions will experience either declines in net benefits or increases in net costs. “Taken as a whole,” the IPCC concludes, “the range of published evidence indicates that the net damage costs of climate change are likely to be significant and to increase over time.”

Slide 4 - Impact of Climate Change (continued)

Resources and ecosystems –Freshwater resources –Wildlife population and community dynamics –Agriculture, forestry and fisheries

Human settlements and health –Chronic disease, infectious disease –Economic base of resource-dependent communities –Infrastructure and extreme events

Vulnerability and adaptation –Tourism and recreation –Energy, industry and transportation

Resources and ecosystems

• In western snowmelt-dominated watersheds, shifts in seasonal runoff, with more runoff in winter. Adaptation may not fully offset effects of reduced summer water availability.
• Changes in the abundance and spatial distribution of species important to commercial and recreational fisheries.
• Benefits from warming for food production in North America but with strong regional differences.
• Benefits from farm- and market-level adjustments in ameliorating impacts of climate change on agriculture.
• Increases in the area and productivity of forests, though carbon stocks could increase or decrease.
• Major role of disturbance for forest ecosystems. The forest fire season is likely to lengthen, and the area subject to high fire danger is likely to increase significantly.
• Likely losses of cold-water ecosystems, high alpine areas, and coastal and inland wetlands. Human settlements and health
• Less extreme winter cold in northern cities. Across North America, cities will experience more extreme heat and, in some locations, rising sea levels and risk of storm surge, water scarcity, and changes in timing, frequency, and severity of flooding. The need for changes in land-use planning and infrastructure design to avoid increased damages from heavy precipitation events.
• For communities that have the necessary resources, reduced vulnerability by adapting infrastructure.
• Increased deaths, injuries, infectious diseases, and stress related disorders and other adverse effects associated with social disruption and migration from more frequent extreme weather.
• Increased frequency and severity of heatwaves leading to more illness and death, particularly among the young, elderly and frail. Respiratory disorders may be exacerbated by warming-induced deterioration in air quality.
• Expanded ranges of vector-borne and tick-borne diseases in North America but with modulation by public health measures and other factors. Vulnerability and adaptation
• Increased weather-related losses in North America since the 1970s, with rising insured losses reflecting growing affluence and movement into vulnerable areas.
• Coverage, since the 1980s, by disaster relief and insurance programmes of a large fraction of flood and crop losses, possibly encouraging more human activity in at-risk areas.
• Responses by insurers to recent extreme events through limiting insurance availability, increasing prices and establishing new risk-spreading mechanisms. Improving building codes, land-use planning and disaster preparedness also reduce disaster losses.
• Awareness that developing adaptation responses requires a long, interdisciplinary dialogue between researchers and stakeholders, with substantial changes in institutions and infrastructure.
• Recognition that adaptation strategies generally address current challenges, rather than future impacts and opportunities.

Slide 5 - Air Quality

Slide 6 - Health Impacts on Air Quality

Urban heat bubbles with higher ozone –High temperatures combined with pollutants results in increased ground-level ozone

Increase in respiratory disorders

Increases in mold, algae blooms, and pollen –Increased storms and water intrusion expected to result in more indoor air quality and mold issues –Algae blooms much more active in warmer water –Warmer climate predicted to increase proliferation of pollen producing plants

Climate change is expected to contribute to some air quality problems (IPCC, 2007). Respiratory disorders may be exacerbated by warming-induced increases in the frequency of smog (ground-level ozone) events and particulate air pollution.

Ground-level ozone can damage lung tissue, and is especially harmful for those with asthma and other chronic lung diseases. Sunlight and high temperatures, combined with other pollutants such as nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds, can cause ground-level ozone to increase. Climate change may increase the concentration of ground-level ozone, but the magnitude of the effect is uncertain. For other pollutants, the effects of climate change and/or weather are less well studied and results vary by region (IPCC, 2007).

Another pollutant of concern is "particulate matter," also known as particle pollution or PM. Particulate matter is a complex mixture of extremely small particles and liquid droplets. When breathed in, these particles can reach the deepest regions of the lungs. Exposure to particle pollution is linked to a variety of significant health problems. Particle pollution also is the main cause of visibility impairment (haze) in the nation’s cities and national parks. Climate change may indirectly affect the concentration of PM pollution in the air by affecting natural or “biogenic” sources of PM such as wildfires and dust from dry soils.

Climate change impacts on infrastructure and human health and safety in urban centers will be compounded by aging infrastructure, maladapted urban form and building stock, urban heat islands, air pollution, population growth and an ageing population (very high confidence).

While inertia in the political, economic, and cultural systems complicates near-termaction, the long life and high value of North American capital stock make proactive adaptation important for avoiding costly retrofits in coming decades.

Slide 7 - Nutrition

Slide 8 - Health Impacts on Nutrition

Regional climate change expected to impact agricultural yields, production, and pricing –Expect increase in yields at higher latitudes, decrease in lower latitudes –Most negative effects expected in developing countries

Expected increase in the number of undernourished people globally –Leads to complications in child development

Example, regional climate change impacts on agricultural yields and production are likely to grow over time, with the most negative effects expected in developing countries. This is expected to increase the number of undernourished people globally and consequently lead to complications in child development

Slide 9 - Infectious Diseases

Slide 10 - Impact on Infectious Diseases

Change in range of some infectious disease vectors

Mixed effects on malaria; in some places the geographical range will contract, elsewhere the range will expand

Increased number of people at risk of dengue

Spatial distribution, intensity, and seasonality of meningococcal meningitis appear to be linked to climatic, particularly drought

Populations with poor sanitation infrastructure and high burdens of infectious disease often experience increased rates of diarrheal diseases after flood events.

Increases in cholera (Sur et al., 2000; Gabastou et al., 2002), cryptosporidiosis (Katsumata et al., 1998) and typhoid fever (Vollaard et al., 2004)

Slide 11 - Impact on Water Borne Diseases

Extreme precipitation has been linked to waterborne disease outbreaks –Cryptosporidiosis, typhoid fever, cholera, and other diarrheal illnesses

Droughts can cause waterborne illnesses by depleting drinking water and concentrating contaminants

Sea surface temperature and height correlated with cholera epidemics –Vibrio spp. are expected to increase with warming temperatures

Slide 12 - Chronic Diseases

Slide 13 - Health Impacts on Chronic Disease

Expected increase cardio-respiratory morbidity and mortality associated with ground-level ozone and extreme heat

Predicted increase in the incidence of heat waves and hot extremes by end of the century –Chicago projected to experience 25 percent more frequent heat waves –LA project to experience 4 to 8 fold increase in heat wave days

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14.2.5 Human Health- Many human diseases are sensitive to weather, from cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves or air pollution, to altered transmission of infectious diseases. Synergistic effects of other activities can exacerbate weather exposures (e.g., via the urban heat island effect), requiring cross sector risk assessment to determine site-specific vulnerability.

Slide 14 - Society

Slide 15 - Impacts on Society

Impacts of climate change may cause social disruption, economic decline, and displacement of populations

Poor populations will not be able to adapt to changes as readily

Most vulnerable population expected to be most effected

Stress related to living in adverse conditions will impact social health

Slide 16 - Natural Disasters

Slide 17 - Impact on Natural Disasters

Expected increase in heat waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts –Increase in the number of people suffering from death, disease and injury

Warmer ocean temperatures make severe weather much more likely

Forest fires expected to increase in frequency due to shifting patterns of heat and drought –Canada: expecting an increase in annual window of high fire ignition risk (10-30%) and annual burned area (74-118%) by 2100 –Smoke from fires as well as burns and other injuries expected to impact public health

Floods are low-probability, high-impact events that can overwhelm physical infrastructure, human resilience and social organization. Floods are the most frequent natural weather disaster (EM-DAT, 2006). Floods result from the interaction of rainfall, surface runoff, evaporation, wind, sea level and local topography. In inland areas, flood regimes vary substantially depending on catchment size, topography and climate. Water management practices, urbanization, intensified land use and forestry can substantially alter the risks of floods (EEA, 2005). Windstorms are often associated with floods. Major storm and flood disasters have occurred in the last two decades. In 2003, 130 million people were affected by floods in China (EM-DAT, 2006). In 1999, 30,000 died from storms followed by floods and landslides in Venezuela. In 2000/2001, 1,813 died in floods in Mozambique (IFRC, 2002; Guha-Sapir et al., 2004).

Slide 18 - Orange County Health Department's Role

Slide 19 - Orange County Health Department's Role (continued)

Monitoring infectious disease cases and outbreaks through surveillance

Educating the public about the risk of infectious diseases and prevention methods

Promoting all-hazards preparedness model which includes: –Hurricanes –Bioterrorism –Natural outbreaks

Slide 20 - Adaption

Adaptive capacity needs to be improved everywhere; impacts of recent hurricanes and heat waves show that even high-income countries are not well prepared to cope with extreme weather events

Economic development is an important component of adaptation, but on its own will not insulate the world’s population from disease and injury due to climate change

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Slide 21 - What Can We Do Today?

Slide 22 - Governor Crist's Legislative Priorities

Creates Florida Green Government Grants to provide incentives for local governments, including municipalities, counties and school districts to develop cost-efficient solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improve quality of life and strengthen Florida’s economy.

The Governor’s legislative package includes $200 million designed to stimulate economic development in the renewable and alternative energy field.

The proposed legislation extends the existing 30-minute physical education requirement for elementary students to sixth grade students in K-6 schools.

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Slide 23 - Where Do We Go Next?

Since 1966, people have talked about a livable future community in Central Florida. When does tomorrow start?